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Later-life factors affecting labour market withdrawal (pensions entitlements, health, job strains) are well documented. Our focus is on labour market and family events earlier in life: their direct effects and indirect effects (mediated by later life factors). $ @ @` ̙33___PPT10i. p+D=' = @B +" (      x?Rectangle 2>`  0 @ Data sources @:   x ?Rectangle 3Z> 0 nBHPS + work-life histories (Mar) + partnership / fertility histories (Pronzato). Waves 1-14 WERS04: job strain data ONS LS: complementary analysis Focus on 50-70 year olds, so data cover cohorts born in 1921-1954 (BHPS) and 1931-1951 (ONS LS). $ @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.cbi2+D=' = @B +"> E= %(     x@?Rectangle 2>`  0 KEmployment rates by age @  # A??Picture 3q"L 0 ̙33___PPT10i.2d@ЎA+D=' = @B +" 0(     x ?Rectangle 2>`  0 GEmpirical questions @{   x@?Rectangle 39  \ 0 Which early and mid life-course events predict labour market withdrawal after 50 years? Focus on: Parental background Educational achievement Entry to labour market (and subsequent occupational and work experience) Partnership/family formation (and subsequent experience) Nc$Z$Z$Zc @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.g0%%+D=' = @B +" "@(     x`?Rectangle 2>`  0 GEmpirical questions @   x?Rectangle 39  \ 0 ]How are these effects mediated by later factors known to influence labour market withdrawal? E.g.: Low education may lead to less congenial work and poorer health, which in turn leads to earlier retirement. Family activities may restrict choice of occupation/job which in turn affects retirement age (through pension entitlements and labour demand).6c$Z$Zc ^@ @` ̙33___PPT10i.g0%%+D=' = @B +"_ f^P F(      x?Rectangle 2>`  0 FEmpirical approach @   x?Rectangle 3Z> 0 (Sequential approach to introducing the various explanatory factors into the analysis. Begin with parental background and end with job strains and health near to retirement Sequential approach gives us  total effect of a factor (when first introduced) and its  direct effect (after controlling for later mediating factors). N$$Z$ F@ @` ̙33___PPT10i.gЯ+D=' = @B +"" )!`$ (  $ $  xV?Rectangle 2>`  0 MEmpirical approach contd. @ $  x`Pv?Rectangle 3  \ 0 bWe present some key findings, highlighting gender differences  with the caveat that we cannot necessarily generalise experience of previous cohorts to those of the future& 2$$ @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.gЯ+D=' = @B +"|  {p(c(  (! (  x?Rectangle 2>`  0 U!Parental background and education "@ (  x?Rectangle 3Z> 0 6Parental background (whether father employed at age 14, whether in lone parent family at 14, Goldthorpe social class) turns out not to be important overall. Where there is an impact (for men), it is usually because  higher social class better education. We expect education to affect later-life employment, but not clear in which direction, e.g.: Higher earnings more incentive to stay in work (substitution effect) But higher earnings higher pension wealth retire earlier (income effect). 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Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK "=B 0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK "=B 0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK "=B 0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK  " =B 0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK I "I =B  0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK A "A =B !0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK G  =B "0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK"G" =B #0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK G"G=B $0 s *1#"@PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!Pdrs/downrev.xmlDj1 Cw5H)QD[?0nf7ɒu}R̜9|eoёcQpJy"1)xRb2\;J$9*010d1\Knc}%G2dٻXsJ0Pq;ݭgUNx(_[aN+Hk}n\PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!Pdrs/downrev.xmlPK  "  %0 n&?Rectangle 49 Z Table reports marginal effects evaluated at sample mean characteristics. ** Significant at 1% level; * significant at 5% level.4 dJe7E { @` ̙33___PPT10i.h`'{+D=' = @B +" f me4M(  4 4  x?Rectangle 2>`  0 HEducation summarised @ 4  x`?Rectangle 39  O 0 -Having O-level or greater favours later-life employment, especially among women. Effect is much weaker among men and operates almost entirely via subsequent experience in the labour market (the more educated started work at a later age and have more stable employment) as well as health status in later life. Education gap shrinks among older people (especially women) as the better qualified withdraw from employment (better pension entitlements?). $ @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.h`+D=' = @B +" 8(  8D 8  x`/?Rectangle 2>`  0 x(Labour market entry and family formation))$ )@x 8  x ?Rectangle 3Z> 0 For both men and women employment rates in later life are positively associated with: Later entry to the labour market (5yr delay +20% for men and +10% for women) Later marriage or childbirth (5yr delay +9% for men and +8% for women) For men, early entry to the labour market and early partnership are both related to poor health later on (and thence early withdrawal) rV$V$V$VV,")  v@ @` ̙33___PPT10i.hL+D=' = @B +" <(  <D <  x -?Rectangle 2>`  0 x(Labour market entry and family formation))$ )@G <  x@?Rectangle 3Z> 0 {For women, early entry to the labour market and early partnership are both related to poor health later on; and also partly determine their occupation and industry, which in turn affect later employment outcomes (partly via health). Perhaps surprisingly, little evidence that timing and frequency of separation/divorce matters (see report). People with children have higher employment rates in later life (16% for women and 6% for men). But no effects from having kids over extended period.@$Vl$P$V @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.hL+D=' = @B +" @(  @C @  x*?Rectangle 2>`  0 w'Labour market experience and occupation((  (@X @  x3?Rectangle 3Z> 0  More (continuous) employment favours employment in later life, though changing jobs often also seems to delay withdrawal. Men in the professional, technical or administrative field work less in later life compared to other occupations (better pensions?). Women in  lower occupations (esp retail and operatives) tend to work less compared to those in administration. But this gap closes after age 55.$P @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.h^+D=' = @B +"N    D(  D D  x(?Rectangle 2>`  0 IMain occupation - men @ D # A??Picture 3] 0 D f#?Rectangle 4 [S .Predicted employment rates for men aged 54 and 59 (married with 2 children, at least O-level, started work at 16, got married at 25, lives in an area with 5% unemployment in 2004). , dAC { @`2 D P!?Oval 5"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!$?drs/downrev.xmlDKK1!\TAc"J/vftr3$1{ ];|ioZƲ A\Zp`] |@Z&G0+Pa_:җ5novxHp,N5vt_S6 ޟn2_,_MdJw G e+qB)H~6PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!Z,[ _rels/.relsPK-!$?drs/downrev.xmlPK ,$D V  @` ̙33___PPT10.i`+ DO' = @B D ' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +DA' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+B#style.visibility<*D%(+8+0+D +"    H(  H H  x ?Rectangle 2>`  0 KMain occupation - women @ H # A??Picture 3N  0 H lm?Rectangle 4 h 0Predicted employment rates for women aged 54 and 59 (married with 2 children, at least O-level, started work at 16, got married at 25, lives in an area with 5% unemployment in 2004). , dAC { @`2 H Pl?Oval 5"PK![Content_Types].xml|N0 HC+jS8 @:Q۸ ??\o<7p]V޷O(I'6E=, ){Ō4>I)q7UuDހǏ)}nL"Mᴸ&g0eSA)΄2';2 WYu7{ɯΒzŘqFrj9K*(]mOlPK!Z,[ _rels/.relslj0 ``t_Pƈ[>,dgzjǎ?I'f#®Pb-\/Ƿ0Z]nLnp__3.iJV KQBiDžrL,Vʌ/7р4`ANar+m;E/'3U Aںv83/PK!drs/downrev.xmlD]O0MKtCsPMD{Y_.m-x'9yFN5,u~tadK %6F#9//FKs+ k_.Gmι+*R% }!UIr:>TSEW ̿n6[,YR !zΟǙ T^Azl?;l-W+B#style.visibility<*H%(D' =-o6Bdissolve*<3<*H+8+0+H +"0 7/L(  L# L  xk?Rectangle 2>`  0 W#Conclusions and policy implications $@ L  xj?Rectangle 3Z> 0 |Becoming  established later in life (partnering and starting work) is associated with a later end to the career: given higher education expansion (and consequent later labour market entry), could be  automatic tendency for later withdrawal in future. For women, educational achievement strongly favours later withdrawal. Reducing the proportion of women with no, or very low, qualifications could also further boost later life employment rates.$Z @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.iA+D=' = @B +"y xP`(  P# P  x?Rectangle 2>`  0 W#Conclusions and policy implications $@ P  x?Rectangle 3Z> 0 1Having children leads to later withdrawal. If they are more costly than in previous cohorts (for example, due to uni expenses), this may be another factor which promotes later-life employment. Analysis highlights importance of employment stability (especially for men) and occupation (esp for women). These are key mediating factors (reflecting education and timing of partnership formation / labour mkt entry) and both are related to subsequent health.$Z @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.iA+D=' = @B +"  T(  T# T  x?Rectangle 2>`  0 W#Conclusions and policy implications $@X T  x?Rectangle 3Z> 0  Women in  lower occupations are less likely to be in work at older ages partly because these occupations are associated with job strains and poor health in later life. Underlines the potential gains from addressing occupational health issues. Employment gap between women with and without qualifications, as well as between the  lower and  higher occupational groups, was larger in their early 50s than at later ages. So focus on relatively younger age group? As mentioned, the occupational gap is related to health outcomes.$Z @ @` ̙33___PPT10i.iA+D=' = @B +" NF0X.(  X X  x?Rectangle 2>`  0 9Further information  X  x`?Rectangle 3Z> 0 Life-course events and later-life employment by Morten Blekesaune, Mark Bryan and Mark Taylor Summary at: http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd5/summ2007-2008/502summ.pdf Full report at: http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd5/rports2007-2008/rrep502.pdf P->>@2k=? k6 @` ̙3380___PPT10.Q0," |t@\\(  \  \  x?Rectangle 2>`  0 @ Extra slides @ \  x ?Rectangle 3Z> 0 D @ @` ̙3380___PPT10.CPc"h ogP`O(  ` `  x@?Rectangle 2>`  0 OTransitions from employment @ `  x`?Rectangle 3Z> 0 (Most common type of transition (about 60%) is to retirement. For men, next most common transition (24%) is to unemployment  but about half return to employment within a year. For women, next most common transition (18%) is to family/home care: about 75% stay out of lab mkt. 11%of transitions are to sickness/disability: about 80% stay out of lab mkt`$` `@ @` ̙33___PPT10i.UgA+D=' = @B +"rljKT=7ejqw~Iʦ0Oh+'0D PXhx Slide 1Cascadethompsr14@_h:@@'1RGg  pp  pA 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